What will the next big technological breakthrough be?
Technology conferences love to talk about The Next Big Thing. Come and see! Line up for the big unveiling! Watch as we unveil the new tool that will define the next decade! Then, after all the thunder and fanfare, there’s a brief tech demo – and then what? It’s usually a bit of a letdown. The new gizmo is interesting, but you’re not sure how it’s meant to change your life. You certainly can’t picture yourself using one.
You’re not alone. The history of technology launches is full of moments like this one. The good news is, just because a tool seems frivolous today doesn’t mean it won’t change the world tomorrow. In fact, there’s evidence to suggest that the real Next Big Thing, the tool that really does change your life, has already been invented. It’s probably years old by this point. You just don’t know how to use it yet.
Alexander Graham Bell had no idea what he was unleashing when he placed the world’s first telephone call. Bell knew he’d invented a way to transmit speech using electricity, but he thought of the telephone as an evolution of the telegraph. He envisioned a world where every town had one telephone, which people would use to send a message to another town’s telephone office. That’s nice, but it’s hardly a revolution. It would take another inventor, Tivadar Puskás, to see the potential of telephone networks and invent the exchanges and switchboards needed to make personal telephones a reality.
When Guglielmo Marconi invented the first commercial wireless telegraphy system, he didn’t know his discovery would someday allow BBC Radio One DJs to play the-hits-that-just-won’t-quit for commuters heading home from work. He thought radio waves would be used for person-to-person communication, especially across long distances where telephone or telegraph wiring would be impractical. It would be decades before radio enthusiasts like Frank Conrad came up with the idea of playing music or reading the news over the airwaves, inventing broadcasting as we know it today.
What’s going on here? Bell and Marconi were geniuses. How could someone be smart enough to invent something as revolutionary as the telephone or the radio and still not be able to see how those invention would be used? Simple: Invention is a moment; application is a process.
Bell and Marconi were focused on solving particular problems and so they saw their inventions as keys made for locks. When people like Puskás and Conrad began playing around with these new inventions, they didn’t approach them with the same lock-and-key mentality, freeing them to head in unexpected directions. Innovation is as much about context and perspective and is it about intelligence.
Author Steven Johnson talks about technology opening up the “adjacent possible.” When someone comes up with a new idea, lots of other related ideas are an inevitable consequence. Picture climbing a mountain and seeing a new horizon laid out before you for the first time. That unexplored country, which you couldn’t see before the climb, is the “adjacent possible.” People like Bell and Marconi climb mountains and their discoveries send explorers like Puskás and Conrad out into the valley below.
This cycle is still happening today. Mobile text messages were originally meant to be used only by wireless carriers to talk to customers. Twitter was envisioned as broadcast platform until a user invented the hashtag and turned it into the world’s most powerful discussion engine. In medicine, aerospace, defence and every other field of human endeavor, innovative minds are forever finding new applications for old ideas.
The same cycle plays out at Microsoft too. Kinect was originally conceived as a tool for enhancing video games. Now we’re envisioning a world where the same hands-free technology is used to enhance the world of surgeons, retailers, educators and more. Some of the coolest work being done with Microsoft technology isn’t even being done at Microsoft. It’s being done by our partners -- small, locally owned businesses who continue to find new, innovative applications for Microsoft solutions right here in the UK.
Technology conference love talking about the Next Big Thing. But if the Next Big Thing is already here, then surely the application is what really matters. That’s how the Next Big Thing becomes the Now Big Thing. That’s how the distant future becomes the cutting edge. Why isn’t there a show for technology like that?
Turns out there is. We’re calling it Future Decoded. On 10-11 November, you can join us in London and discover game-changing applications of existing technologies. You’ll meet partners who can walk you through the “adjacent possible” of 2015. You’ll meet partners who can show you how today’s tools will create tomorrow’s opportunities. You’ll meet businesses and organisations of every size and type who are using little-understood tools today to lay the foundation for big things tomorrow. Best of all, you’ll learn how you can join them. And the whole thing is free. See you there.